Ming-Chi Kuo: demand for iPhone 14 Plus weaker than for mini, 14 Pro Max surpasses its predecessor
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities has published an early report on the pre-orders of Apple’s latest iPhone generation. Demand for the iPhone 14 Pro Max has surpassed that for the 13 Pro Max last year, so it was rated “good, the iPhone 14 Pro got a neutral rating (i.e. same demand as 13 Pro) and the other two models got a “bad” rating.
In the end it seems to be a wash for Apple in terms of total numbers, but this shift towards the higher end models will lead to a higher Average Selling Price (ASP). Overall, the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus account for 45% of shipments of the iPhone 14 series.
Interestingly, based on Kuo’s data, demand for the new Plus model is weaker than even the iPhone 13 mini saw last year – you know, the mini that was killed off because of weak demand (the Plus is also doing worse than this year’s iPhone SE, apparently).
If the weak demand for the two vanilla models hold, Apple is expected to reduce the shipping targets for them in the coming weeks. Whether it increases the target for the two Pro models will depend on how long the inrush of pre-orders for them lasts.
Note that this data is estimated based on wait times for new iPhone 14 models in several major markets – six weeks for the Pro Max, five for the Pro, while the other two will be in stock come launch day. A few weeks ago Kuo published a similar report based on offline pre-orders in China. There the two Pro models made up 85% of pre-orders, the Plus less than 5%.
The iPhone 14 series hasn’t even properly gone on sale yet – it is now accepting pre-orders, the first sales are scheduled to start on Friday (September 16). The Plus will go on sale later (next month), but so far things are not looking good for the iPhone 14 Plus.
As for the Pros, Kuo writes: “No doubt, the pre-order result for Pro models proves again that Apple still has numerous loyal and sticky customers amid the deteriorating economy, but it doesn’t mean Apple will increase orders of Pro models at once.”
